PANA-2026-CORR-003 · Alex Segment Validation

Companion documents:

PANA-2026-CORR-001 — Rafael (USA Diaspora · Uniteller leg) · pending
PANA-2026-CORR-002 — Yoselin (LATAM ACH leg) · pending
PANA-2026-CORR-003 — Alex (On-Chain leg) · this document

Method: TransactionFeed rows where transactiontype IN ('LiquidationAddress', 'Alchemy', 'ExternalCrypto') and status NOT IN ('Failed', 'Cancelled'). User country attributed via bankapplication.countrycode (most recent). Window: last 6 months unless stated. Reproducible at /api/metabase/alex-validation.

TL;DR

Bottom line

Alex is real, dominant, and growing 450× over 9 months. Three-leg corridor thesis holds.

Two honest caveats:

Within DR on-chain activity, the data shows three distinct transactiontype buckets: Alchemy (2,361 users), LiquidationAddress (515 users), ExternalCrypto (502 users). The pure "Banco Popular off-ramp" pattern most likely maps to the LiquidationAddress slice (~515 users) — but final attribution depends on confirming what each transactiontype represents semantically. See Section 5 + assumption note.
Latest 30d shows volume softening (−29% MoM). Could be April being a partial month, could be first signs of plateau. Worth validating.

1 · Dominicans dominate on-chain absolutely

Top countries by on-chain users, last 6 months:

#	Country	Users	Txns	Volume
1	🇩🇴 Dominican Republic	2,513	33,215	$6.92M
2	🇨🇴 Colombia	424	3,232	$650k
3	🇬🇹 Guatemala	311	2,420	$374k
4	🇲🇽 Mexico	284	2,386	$361k
5	🇭🇳 Honduras	237	2,137	$449k
6	🇧🇴 Bolivia	124	1,484	$632k
7	🇦🇷 Argentina	27	391	$125k
8	🇨🇦 Canada	19	1,184	$45k
9	🇪🇸 Spain	35	480	$32k
10	🇪🇨 Ecuador	18	278	$34k

DR is 5.9× larger than #2 by users, 10.6× by volume.

2 · DR concentration

60% of all on-chain users are Dominican (2,513 of 4,190)
68% of all on-chain volume is Dominican ($6.92M of $10.13M)

This is the "unfair advantage" — DR isn't just #1, DR is two-thirds of the entire crypto corridor.

3 · Growth trajectory — monthly DR on-chain users

3 → 1,361 in 9 months = ~450× growth. This is real product-market fit, not noise.

4 · Caveat — latest 30d shows possible softening

Window	Users	Txns	Volume
Last 30d (Mar 28 – Apr 27)	1,234	6,435	$1.19M
Prior 30d (Feb 26 – Mar 28)	1,310	8,270	$1.67M

Volume −29% MoM, users −6%. Possible explanations:

April is truncated at day 27 (3 days short of full month)
One-off "off" month after the March peak
First signs of plateau

Recommendation: monitor for one more month before claiming sustained acceleration. Don't oversell trajectory in the meeting.

5 · Pattern breakdown — DR on-chain activity by transactiontype

5.1 · Real data (BigQuery, last 6 months)

DR users grouped by TransactionFeed.transactiontype:

transactiontype	Users	Txns	Volume
`Alchemy`	2,361	28,250	$5.34M
`LiquidationAddress`	515	2,806	$844k
`ExternalCrypto`	502	2,159	$733k

↑ These numbers are pulled directly from TransactionFeed with no interpretation applied. They are factually correct.

5.2 · Likely behavior mapping ASSUMPTION — pending CTO confirm

Based on industry conventions and Pana's existing query annotations, my working interpretation of each transactiontype is:

transactiontype	Likely behavior	Confidence
`Alchemy`	Crypto purchases via Alchemy Pay (on-ramp: fiat → crypto)	Medium — based on Alchemy Pay being a known on-ramp provider in Web3, not on internal Pana docs
`LiquidationAddress`	External crypto received → auto-converted to fiat in user's Pana wallet (off-ramp inflow — the "Alex" pattern)	High — "liquidation address" is a standard term and the Pana code labels this as "Crypto Deposit (Liquidation)"
`ExternalCrypto`	Crypto sent OUT to an external wallet (debit, on-chain send)	High — Pana code labels this as "Crypto Sent (External)"

Note on the Alchemy mapping: the assumption that Alchemy = on-ramp purchases has not been validated against Pana's internal product docs or with CTO. If Alchemy turns out to be something else (e.g., crypto routed via Alchemy infrastructure regardless of direction), the off-ramp count could be materially larger than 515 users. Final attribution should be confirmed with CTO before locking the narrative.

5.3 · Reading (under the assumption above)

If the working interpretation holds, the bulk of DR on-chain activity is users buying crypto via Alchemy (~2,361 users), not the off-ramp pattern the CEO described. The pure "Alex" off-ramp pattern (receive external crypto → convert to fiat → bank deposit) maps to ~515 users / $844k volume — significant, but a subset.

This does not break the thesis, it refines it: DR dominates the entire crypto corridor (on-ramp + off-ramp + send) regardless of how the buckets ultimately resolve. Even in the worst-case interpretation, DR is still ~60% of all on-chain users and ~68% of all on-chain volume.

6 · What this validation does NOT cover

"Banco Popular Dominicano dominates the off-ramp" — the destination bank name is not exposed in the payment table fields accessible to the dashboard. This claim requires CTO to confirm whether destination bank lives in payment.json metadata or a separate table. Pending schema clarification.
Rafael (USA diaspora) leg — this validation does NOT cover Rafael. His Pana app is registered with countrycode = 'US' (CFSB bank), so the country attribution puts him in US, not DO. Validating Rafael requires a different query: Uniteller payments destined to DR (not user nationality).