PANA-2026-CORR-003 · Alex Segment Validation

Companion documents:

PANA-2026-CORR-001 — Rafael (USA Diaspora · Uniteller leg) · pending
PANA-2026-CORR-002 — Yoselin (LATAM ACH leg) · pending
PANA-2026-CORR-003 — Alex (On-Chain leg) · this document

Method: TransactionFeed rows where transactiontype IN ('LiquidationAddress', 'Alchemy', 'ExternalCrypto') and status NOT IN ('Failed', 'Cancelled'). User country attributed via bankapplication.countrycode (most recent). Window: last 6 months unless stated. Reproducible at /api/metabase/alex-validation.

TL;DR

Bottom line

Alex is real and DR dominates the on-chain corridor (60% of users, 68% of volume). The growth trajectory cannot be claimed yet — blockchain transaction recording only began ~Feb 2026, with March 2026 the first reliable month. Three-leg thesis still holds directionally, but the on-chain leg needs ≥2–3 more months of recording before sustained acceleration is provable.

Three caveats to flag explicitly:

Recording start (CTO confirmed 2026-04-28): blockchain transactions began appearing in transactionfeed only around February 2026, with reliable data from March onwards. Pre-March numbers in this document are artifacts of instrumentation, not actual user counts. The "450× over 9 months" framing in earlier drafts has been replaced.
Within DR on-chain activity, the data shows three distinct transactiontype buckets: Alchemy (2,361 users), LiquidationAddress (515 users), ExternalCrypto (502 users). The pure "Banco Popular off-ramp" pattern most likely maps to the LiquidationAddress slice (~515 users) — but final attribution depends on confirming what each transactiontype represents semantically. See Section 5 + assumption note.
Latest 30d shows volume softening (−29% MoM). Cannot be interpreted yet — only one full reliable month (March) and one partial (April) exist.

⚠️ Critical methodology note: Per CTO (2026-04-28), transactionfeed began registering blockchain transactions only ~February 2026. Data prior to that is under-counted for on-chain activity. Growth comparisons across that boundary are not interpretable. Sections 1, 2, 4 below report figures that include the under-counted period — they hold directionally (DR is unambiguously #1) but absolute month-over-month deltas pre-March are unreliable. Section 3 has been rewritten to reflect this.

1 · Dominicans dominate on-chain absolutely

Top countries by on-chain users, last 6 months:

#	Country	Users	Txns	Volume
1	🇩🇴 Dominican Republic	2,513	33,215	$6.92M
2	🇨🇴 Colombia	424	3,232	$650k
3	🇬🇹 Guatemala	311	2,420	$374k
4	🇲🇽 Mexico	284	2,386	$361k
5	🇭🇳 Honduras	237	2,137	$449k
6	🇧🇴 Bolivia	124	1,484	$632k
7	🇦🇷 Argentina	27	391	$125k
8	🇨🇦 Canada	19	1,184	$45k
9	🇪🇸 Spain	35	480	$32k
10	🇪🇨 Ecuador	18	278	$34k

DR is 5.9× larger than #2 by users, 10.6× by volume.

2 · DR concentration

60% of all on-chain users are Dominican (2,513 of 4,190)
68% of all on-chain volume is Dominican ($6.92M of $10.13M)

This is the "unfair advantage" — DR isn't just #1, DR is two-thirds of the entire crypto corridor.

3 · DR on-chain users — first months of reliable recording

Note: The chart below is shown for transparency, but only March 2026 and later reflect reliable, fully-recorded data. Earlier months are artifacts of transactionfeed not yet capturing blockchain activity (per CTO 2026-04-28). The "450× growth" framing from earlier drafts has been retired.

First reliable month: March 2026 — 1,361 DR users on-chain, $1.71M volume. April (1-27 partial): 1,082 users, $1.02M. With only one full month of reliable data, the trajectory cannot be claimed yet — needs ≥2–3 more months of recording before we can argue sustained acceleration vs plateau vs noise.

4 · Caveat — latest 30d shows possible softening

Window	Users	Txns	Volume
Last 30d (Mar 28 – Apr 27)	1,234	6,435	$1.19M
Prior 30d (Feb 26 – Mar 28)	1,310	8,270	$1.67M

Volume −29% MoM, users −6%. This comparison should not be treated as a real signal yet for two reasons:

The "Prior 30d" window (Feb 26 – Mar 28) sits right at the recording-start boundary — Feb data is partially under-counted (per CTO note), so the prior-30d figure is itself unreliable.
April is truncated at day 27 (3 days short of full month).

Recommendation: wait for May 2026 (first clean MoM comparison: April vs May, both within the reliable-recording window) before reading any trajectory signal from this segment.

5 · Pattern breakdown — DR on-chain activity by transactiontype

5.1 · Real data (BigQuery, last 6 months)

DR users grouped by TransactionFeed.transactiontype:

transactiontype	Users	Txns	Volume
`Alchemy`	2,361	28,250	$5.34M
`LiquidationAddress`	515	2,806	$844k
`ExternalCrypto`	502	2,159	$733k

↑ These numbers are pulled directly from TransactionFeed with no interpretation applied. They are factually correct.

5.2 · Likely behavior mapping ASSUMPTION — pending CTO confirm

Based on industry conventions and Pana's existing query annotations, my working interpretation of each transactiontype is:

transactiontype	Likely behavior	Confidence
`Alchemy`	Crypto purchases via Alchemy Pay (on-ramp: fiat → crypto)	Medium — based on Alchemy Pay being a known on-ramp provider in Web3, not on internal Pana docs
`LiquidationAddress`	External crypto received → auto-converted to fiat in user's Pana wallet (off-ramp inflow — the "Alex" pattern)	High — "liquidation address" is a standard term and the Pana code labels this as "Crypto Deposit (Liquidation)"
`ExternalCrypto`	Crypto sent OUT to an external wallet (debit, on-chain send)	High — Pana code labels this as "Crypto Sent (External)"

Note on the Alchemy mapping: the assumption that Alchemy = on-ramp purchases has not been validated against Pana's internal product docs or with CTO. If Alchemy turns out to be something else (e.g., crypto routed via Alchemy infrastructure regardless of direction), the off-ramp count could be materially larger than 515 users. Final attribution should be confirmed with CTO before locking the narrative.

5.3 · Reading (under the assumption above)

If the working interpretation holds, the bulk of DR on-chain activity is users buying crypto via Alchemy (~2,361 users), not the off-ramp pattern the CEO described. The pure "Alex" off-ramp pattern (receive external crypto → convert to fiat → bank deposit) maps to ~515 users / $844k volume — significant, but a subset.

This does not break the thesis, it refines it: DR dominates the entire crypto corridor (on-ramp + off-ramp + send) regardless of how the buckets ultimately resolve. Even in the worst-case interpretation, DR is still ~60% of all on-chain users and ~68% of all on-chain volume.

6 · What this validation does NOT cover

This document scopes only the on-chain (Alex) leg of the three-leg corridor thesis. The other two legs need separate validation queries:

"Banco Popular Dominicano dominates the off-ramp" — the destination bank name is not exposed in the payment table fields accessible to the dashboard. CTO redirected this question to @Jose Javi Asilis (Slack #data-discussions); will confirm whether destination bank lives in payment.json metadata or a separate table. In flight.
Rafael (USA diaspora) leg — CORR-001 — this validation does NOT cover Rafael. His Pana app is registered with countrycode = 'US' (CFSB bank), so the country attribution puts him in US, not DO. Validating Rafael requires a different query: Uniteller payments destined to DR (not user nationality).
Yoselin (LATAM ACH earner) leg — CORR-002 — the CEO's claim ("Dominicans are #1 nationality in Global, 35,185 signups, ~20% of all Global") has not been independently re-validated against BigQuery in this doc. It needs its own query: Global signups grouped by nationality, with monthly trend, to confirm both the 35,185 figure and the ~20% share. Until then, that number is sourced from the CEO doc, not from this validation.

7 · Open questions (CTO follow-up status, 2026-04-28)

Question	Status	Detail
Country attribution field	Refining	Currently using `bankapplication.countrycode`. CTO clarified that `TaxResidence.countryCode` is more authoritative for residence; nationality (which can be multiple) lives in the document type within `bankapplication`. Plan: re-run validation with `TaxResidence` after the meeting; expected delta is small for Globals (Pana app country usually = residence) but material for US-resident Dominicans (Rafael leg, see CORR-001).
Destination bank for off-ramp	In flight	Pinged @Jose Javi Asilis in `#data-discussions`. Will validate "Banco Popular dominates" claim once schema is confirmed.
TransactionFeed completeness for blockchain	In flight	Pinged @Luisi De Leon in `#data-discussions`. Confirming whether `transactionfeed.transactiontype IN ('LiquidationAddress','Alchemy','ExternalCrypto')` is exhaustive, or whether `payment` rows with `paymenttype='Crypto'` and `providertype='Blockchain'` need to be unioned in.
Canonical TPV definition (related, not blocking this doc)	Tabled	CTO suggested moving the signed-vs-ABS / auth-mirror exclusion discussion to `#data-discussions`. Doesn't block CORR-003. Headline TPV in product dashboard remains ops-aligned for continuity.